April 17th - With many markets – particularly those in Europe, Australia and Hong Kong – still closed today for the long Easter weekend, there’s little being released onto the economic calendar to provide currencies bwith much direction. As a result, it’s been a case of looking at the old cycle of US rate hikes and opinion is once again building that these may come to a halt in the not too distant future, putting the dollar under a degree of pressure across the board as a result. Furthermore, strong gains in the price of oil, gold and silver seem to be pushing the greenback out of favour. Most critically however, attention is likely to focus on the TICS data due later today as the market looks for any indication that investment into the US may be falling out of favour. There’s always concern when the trade deficit isn’t covered by net inflows and although the February deficit surprised many with a 4.1% contraction, at $65.7bn it was still the third highest on record. Expectations are for a number around $70bn but it’s going to be close and with the possibility of US military intervention in Iran continuing to overshadow matters, a reluctance to be over-invested in the US market could easily be seen…
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