*Last Updated August 17, 2006, 11:40 pm

Daily report by CMC Markets

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FOREX ANALYSIS

Dollar cheered by Philadelphia Fed, Michigan data awaited next.

August 18th - The dollar’s fortunes may have changed yesterday afternoon with some robust numbers from the Philadelphia Fed and this was enough to see the greenback rally against the other major currencies but such a move off one item of data alone may prove hard to sustain. Indeed although it was relatively quiet through the Asian session, as European traders come online there does seem to be a degree of bargain hunting as many see the dollar as currently looking a little overbought. With further inflation-bearing numbers due ahead of the weekend break there’s every chance that we’ll see further volatility in the short term – indeed unless the Michigan consumer sentiment reading can reflect the fact that the economic expansion still looks likely, it would be of little surprise if a significant part of yesterday’s gains were to be eroded. Elsewhere, this morning’s better than expected German PPI reading may help the Euro lock in any of these gains as traders look to exploit the recent run down in the common currency but until we start getting further messages from the central banks, traders are going to be left watching the numbers and trying to call when the next rate hikes will be seen.

Stuart Scrase



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