*Last Updated August 4, 2006, 12:14 am

Daily report by CMC Markets

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FOREX ANALYSIS

Traders await payroll data; dollar on back foot again

August 4th - With yesterday’s interest rate verdicts from both Frankfurt and London now factored into currency markets, many seem to be engaged in something of a waiting game ahead of next week’s key decision by the FOMC. The US numbers we’ve seen of late have been less than inspiring so it’s really down to today’s non-farm payroll data to see if there’s any further direction available for the dollar ahead of the weekend break. Obviously what the market wants to see here is something notably above or below expectations of 150-200k as this would likely offer some real conviction as to how Bernanke will act next week but unless there’s some surprise data around, the longer term consensus is that the Fed’s mood now needs to turn somewhat more dovish. Ultimately though, with central banks elsewhere around the world seemingly just embarking on their latest run of rate hikes, the dollar may well find any notable support difficult to come by in the weeks ahead. There has without doubt been repeated speculation that the dollar would push lower and in the current climate a return to levels not seen since early 2005 may now be imminent.

Tim Wilbraham and Enis Mehmet



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