*Last Updated July 20, 2006, 12:44 am

Daily report by CMC Markets

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FOREX ANALYSIS

Dollar under pressure at mid-point of Bernanke testimony; UK & US data awaited

July 20th - The dollar may have dropped sharply on the back of Bernanke’s testimony yesterday but with the Fed chief sitting infront of congress again today and numbers such as the weekly jobless claims due, many traders will be expecting further greenback volatility as the session continues. Overnight it’s been relatively quiet with the major pairs trading largely unchanged although both EUR/USD and cable have given back a little from yesterday’s highs. Many will have taken the opportunity to book some profits after the run of gains but longer term signals are also going to be important now. The possibility of the FOMC hiking rates next month is dropping whilst after Tuesday’s UK CPI reading there’s increased speculation that the Bank of England may need to tighten monetary policy in the latter part of 2006, although data due in the next few hours could again start to change these views. US weekly jobless claims and UK retail sales figures will both be closely watched and any suggestion as to the strength – or weakness - of the respective economies could easily be the typical sort of factor that will provide currency markets with direction in the near term.

Andy Cottrill and Enis Mehmet



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