*Last Updated July 5, 2006, 12:34 am

Daily report by CMC Markets

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FOREX ANALYSIS

Rate policies in focus as market largely shrugs off impact of N. Korea missile firing

July 5th - With US markets closed for the 4th July holiday yesterday there was little around to drive currency markets although geopolitical events overnight – namely the test firing of missiles by North Korea – resulted in a degree of volatility. The Yen was left most exposed on the back of this news and although the majority of these losses have now been recovered, expect USD/JPY to remain in the spotlight as we see the critical US non-farm payrolls released Friday – many are suggesting that this reading will be instrumental in directing the Fed’s monetary policy through the second half of 2006 – followed by the BoJ rate verdict late next week. There’s still a lack of consensus as to whether or not now is the time to move away from the ultra-lax monetary policy that has been in place in Japan for some time as although larger businesses are looking quite robust now, the smaller companies still look somewhat vulnerable and any rate tightening would provide little help here. Elsewhere with both the Bank of England and European Central Bank also meeting today to discuss monetary policy (verdicts due tomorrow), interest rate policies look set to remain squarely in focus over the coming days for all the major currency pairs.

Andy Cottrill and Enis Mehmet



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