*Last Updated June 15, 2006, 3:41 am

Daily report by CMC Markets

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FOREX ANALYSIS

Dollar stumbles again ahead of busy day for data.

June 15th - Once again currency markets are becoming increasingly difficult to call after yesterday’s refusal by the dollar to capitalise on the news that a higher than expected CPI reading would make another 25 point hike by the FOMC as good as certain at the end of the month. However, news of falling average weekly earnings and a lacklustre economic outlook from the beige book is certainly sufficient to give some concern over the longer term outlook for the US. There’s a run of additional data due for release through today’s session – including some regional economic data, TICS capital flows and the weekly jobless claims - that will doubtless provide further momentum, but which direction the greenback will take ahead of the weekend break remains to be seen. After the run of strong gains for the dollar over the last few weeks the potential for profit taking and something of a reversion certainly exists – obviously the Bank of Japan may have decided to leave rates unchanged overnight but the outlook for the Japanese economy remains robust. Today’s UK retail sales data will also be under scrutiny and any signs of expansion here stand to buoy cable if it adds to calls for the Bank of England to hike its borrowing costs. Once again it’s all about monetary policy and although we might not see a repeat of yesterday’s volatility, there’s certainly a solid run of directional information to be expected.

Andy Cottrill and Enis Mehmet



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