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1. Australian Leading Index
2. Japanese Convenience Store Sales
3. Canadian Wholesale Sales
4. FOMC Rate Decision
Australian MI Leading Index (JUL) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
Consensus: n/a
Previous: 0.8%
Outlook: The Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of economic activity posted an annualized rate of 5.3 percent in June, and continued growth could be on the menu as employment numbers continue to improve. The Westpac index is likely to suggest that conditions are still particularly favorable and are providing a major stimulus to the Australian economy, although inflation concerns may still weigh heavily. With Australia’s economic growth rate expected to pick up to 3.5 percent for 2006 on rising foreign demand and a revitalized export sector, the leading index could see significant gains over the next few periods.
Previous: The Westpac Leading Index rose 0.8 percent in the month of June, pushing the annualized rate well over the trend to 5.3 percent, as a steadily improving labor market has helped to accelerate broad based growth in the Australian economy. In June, the number of employed persons jumped 53.7K, the highest since September 2004. The tightening employment figures should start to spark further wage growth, which may subsequently boost consumer sentiment. Retail sales, which have already benefited from rising confidence and jumped 0.9 percent in June, could continue to contribute to economic growth via domestic demand.
Japanese Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (AUG) (07:00 GMT; 03:00 EST)
Consensus: n/a
Previous: -5.2%
Outlook: Annualized Japanese Convenience Store Sales are likely to decline at a slower rate in August as the comparative Tokyo Department Store Sales dropped by 1.6 percent annually in August and Nationwide Department Store Sales slipped 0.9 percent in July. While sales figures have been less than impressive, they could be on the rise, as consumer demand and spending are slowly reaching into positive territory. Household spending has struggled as stagnant wage growth has hampered the employment sector and taken money out of the pockets of individual consumers. Until a vast improvement in wages and overall employment in Japan is seen, sales growth may be expected to continue on a very slow path to recovery.
Previous: Convenience Store Sales fell 5.2 percent in July, down from June’s 0.6 percent increase, as seasonal factors and slow-to-recover consumer spending affected margin rates. Consumers spent more of their disposable income on air conditioners, refrigerators and other long-term durable goods to keep cool during hot the weather. Unemployment also played a major role in reversing the trend in July as the numbers of those claiming unemployment fell sharply as wage growth started to foot the bill for higher consumer demand.
Canadian Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JUL) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.5%
Previous: -0.6%
Outlook: Wholesales sales are expected to have returned to positive territory in July, continuing the back and forth seen in the read seen every month for the past twelve months. The expected 0.5 percent advance in sales comes despite other indicators reporting a worsening situation among Canadian firms and fewer reasons to suggest consumers increased their spending habits. In July, shoppers were faced with a large 0.3 percentage point jump in the unemployment rate to 6.4 percent – a product of the second consecutive monthly decline in payrolls. Additionally, gasoline prices for the period were advancing on all-time highs, draining the additional income provided by wage growth at the time. Even foreign consumption was off for the month as the goods and services balance for July fell from C$4.1 billion to C$3.9 billion. Indicators from the producer side could also provide clues to slower than expected numbers. Both a measure of manufacturing activity and output both slowed their paces in July, though they were able fend off predictions of greater declines. One indicator that is fully supporting the consensus though was the 3.0 percent jump in auto sales, the most since November. However this indicator prints, its significance will be lie in its predictive ability for the following day’s retail sales number.
Previous: Wholesalers sold 0.6 percent less in June as sales of cars and food overpowered the combined positive prints of a greater majority of components. Three of seven subgauges to the wholesales number fell for the month. Purchases of new vehicles slumped 2.1 percent as Canadians felt the pinch of expensive gas and high financing rates. In fact when auto were excluded from the gauge, sales at the wholesale level fell only 0.3 percent. On a different note, sales of food, beverages and tobacco dropped 0.8 percent. The third component detracting from overall growth was a sizable 2.3 percent contraction in the ‘other’ category, which included a notable drop in fertilizer.
Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (18:15 GMT; 14:15 EST)
Consensus: 5.25%
Previous: 5.25%
Outlook: Tomorrow’s Fed meeting is expected to put the cap on any lingering predictions that the central bank would consider another rate hike at least until the second quarter of 2007. Currently Fed Fund markets are implying only a slight chance of a rate hike and are even showing some support for a cut going into next year. Such predictions from hedgers find their basis in the recent spell of data that has played down the worries over inflation and concentrated the markets and policy markers on the disappointing growth numbers instead. Recent inflation indicators have been particularly soft. Prices at the producer level, a reliable forecast tool for those seen by the consumer in the months ahead, reported a 0.4 percent drop in the month of August. This was the biggest drop in prices received by factories in over three years. Furthermore, the frequently quoted CPI read for the same month eased to a 3.8 percent annualized pace, its slowest in four months. One reason for the Fed to keep some of its cautionary rhetoric however was the 2.8 percent core CPI number, which cares price growth at its fastest pace since 1996. However, even with this indicator in the wings, Fed officials are already well aware of the marked drop in energy prices and will still refer to softening growth figures. Economic growth in the second quarter was nearly halved with a 2.9 percent annualized pace, and more current numbers aren’t supportive of a rebound anytime soon. One glaring issue surrounding growth potential is the blatant slide in the housing market, which represents on of the largest sources of wealth for consumers. The recent release of August housing starts reported a 6 percent drop in construction to a three-year low 1.746 million units. Moreover, the permits number, often used to predict future activity, actually dropped for its seventh consecutive month. The last time permits fell seven straight months was in 1986. Given all these factors, the Fed is likely to hold to its theme of wait-and-see, but wording should be monitored closely to see if there may be a reduction in the inflationary cautions that has littered their reports for the past two years.
By DailyFX Research Team,
Http://www.dailyfx.com
Email: info@fxcm.com
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